The moniker was ascribed to this fallacy as a result of a game of roulette played at Casino de Monte-Carlo on August 18, 1913, when the ball fell on black 26 consecutive times. Gamblers lost millions of francs by betting against black, as they incorrectly reasoned that the uncommon and imbalanced streak of black had to inevitably be followed. For some reason, however, roulette players are especially beholden to the Gamblers’ Fallacy. Many casino roulette tables even have LED screens that record the last 10 or 12 numbers that have appeared on the wheel. Many roulette ‘systems’ are dependent on certain events becoming ‘due’. Once you understand the math it’s almost.

1. MYTH: Despite what some people think, Roulette doesn’t have 50/50 odds, there is 1 green zero in European Roulette and 2 green zeros in American Roulette. Inverse Gamblers Fallacy. Unsurprisingly inverse Gamblers Fallacy (or reverse Gamblers Fallacy) is the mistaken belief that the coin flipped 9 times on heads will land on heads.
2. Understanding the Gambler's Fallacy. The most famous example of Gambler's Fallacy occurred at the Monte Carlo casino in Las Vegas in 1913. The roulette wheel's ball had fallen on black several.

Gamblers Fallacy (Monte Carlo Fallacy) is the false belief that past events have an impact on the probability of future outcomes of a truly random event.

Gamblers Fallacy Example

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The easiest way to explain this is with an example. If we flip a “fair coin” (a truly balanced coin with 50/50 chance of being heads or tails) ten times and it lands on heads 9 times, someone who believes the gambler’s fallacy will wrongly assume that the next flip is “due” to be tails (tails is overdue as an outcome).

In reality this is wrong. The rules of probability say that every “fair coin” flip has exactly a 50/50 chance of landing on heads or tails no matter what. Period, end of story. This applies very easily to roulette, it doesn’t matter what color came last on a fair roulette table. The probability of hitting red or black doesn’t change depending on passed outcomes either.

MYTH: Despite what some people think, Roulette doesn’t have 50/50 odds, there is 1 green zero in European Roulette and 2 green zeros in American Roulette.

Inverse Gamblers Fallacy

Unsurprisingly inverse Gamblers Fallacy (or reverse Gamblers Fallacy) is the mistaken belief that the coin flipped 9 times on heads will land on heads. This is also not true for the same reasons as above, it is however a better bet. This is because in reality nothing is perfectly designed. If a coin landed on heads 9 times in a row, one might assume the coin favored heads in design (it wasn’t a fair coin, thus one should bet heads to materialize an edge inherent in this unfair coin).

FACT: Future odds are not based on past odds. The probability of something happening more than once, before any event takes place, is not the same as the probability of each event happening. The chances of a coin landing on heads ten times is 1/2^10 or 1 in 1032, if a coin has already landed on heads 9 times the chances of it land on heads again is 1/2^1 or 1 in 2.

The Psychology of Gamblers Fallacy

Without getting too deep into things, we are hardwired to recognize patterns. Your brain wants to tell you that outcomes can be predicted based on past events (fire burns hand, brain says don’t touch fire). However, for the purposes of gambling one should not trust their instincts and always trust a solid strategy based on mathematics if their intention is to actually win.

Man’s success in evolution is in part, affected by his unique perception towards the phenomenon of cyclical events. Almost all of the things important to our survival happens in such a way that it follows a “predictable” pattern. Take for example our food: hunter-gatherers of the primitive times were able to feed themselves because they were able to know that a specific kind of animal would return in this time of the season; farmers, on the other hand, were able to grow, harvest, and stock crops because they also observed the cycle of the season.

This consequently leads us to believe that things which seems to happen randomly in this world is not really… random.

If we noticed a flock of migrating birds gathering at a lake, we would assume right away that soon, they would all fly out towards north because it’s that time of the year for them to do so.

In the same manner, if we get hundred heads in a coin toss, we would think right away that they “gathered together” and a specific event (a tail, perhaps) would likely to happen next.

This way of thinking is called the Gambler’s Fallacy. This “mistaken belief,” however, has long been debunked by people who like to take things as it is.

Roulette Strategy Gambler's Fallacy

For the skeptics of the fallacy, with regards to the coin toss scenario, the hundred heads didn’t just happen for a reason. They simply “occur” and each of the tossing events have no direct connection to the last outcome.

By definition, the gambler’s fallacy is a belief that any random process becomes “less random” and more predictable when they repeatedly happen. This phenomenon happens commonly in gambling, hence the attribution of the name.

A specific example would be in the game of craps. A player, having failed to win in a number of rolls, may feel that the dice are now “due” for a certain number and would likely to come up with a favourable result.

Gambler’s Fallacy and Roulette

Another famous example of a gambling fallacy which happens in roulette was back in August 18, 1913 at the Monte Carlo Casino. According to history, a ball fell in Black for 26 times, consecutively. An extremely rare occurrence, gamblers held the belief that at a certain length of series, a Red would eventually come up. In the end, they lost millions in bets for betting against Black.

This further gave rise to the notion among roulette players that if one lose a number of games in a row, he is bound to make a big win “anytime” soon, which is why he needs to keep on playing.

If you come to think of it, the premise somehow makes sense. It is known for a fact that each spin made in a particular round has completely nothing to do with the previous result or the ones that would come next to it in the future. What if during a series of Reds, you followed your guts to bet on a Black. Since the next spin is an independent event, thus there’s an almost equal chance for Black to occur as with Red.

Should You Believe the Gambler’s Fallacy?

To be successful in roulette, one has to keep in mind that roulette, like any casino game relies purely on chances. Unless done illegally, there is no known device or technique that one could use to affect the outcome.

Roulette Fallacy

If you ask us, it is better not to bank on the idea in which you have to pile up on loses so that you will get a big win later. Each spin is its own event. Take it as it is. Bet accordingly. This way, you become more of a cautious and mindful roulette player rather than a gambler who puts faith on some unforeseen forces.